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Operation Day Thirteenth
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Operation Day Thirteenth
The January 2026 Developments in Iran;
From Peaceful Protests to Terrorist Operations
Executive Summary
On 28 December 2025, following a sudden spike in the exchange rate, trade-related protest gatherings emerged in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar. The demonstrations were driven by concerns over the impact of currency volatility on economic activity and livelihoods, with participants primarily calling for market stability and effective measures to curb financial turbulence.
From the outset, these gatherings were peaceful, professional in nature, and demand-oriented. Economic grievances were expressed calmly and without disrupting public order. The Government’s approach at this stage was to acknowledge the legitimacy of these economic protests and to pursue dialogue. In this context, the President and members of the Government’s economic team met with representatives of the protesters-including bazaar merchants and other economic actors-and instructed relevant authorities to place the demands raised on an expedited agenda.
In the days that followed, protests expanded geographically and, in some areas, were accompanied by limited and sporadic disorder. Nonetheless, there were still no clear indicators of organized violence or a breakdown of public order. Despite instances of provocation and physical attacks against law-enforcement personnel, the prevailing approach remained one of de-escalation, restraint, and proportionality.
From 8 January 2026 onward, the situation changed fundamentally. Organized and armed elements entered the scene, and there was an increasing pattern of coordinated attacks, deliberate arson, and the use of firearms and bladed weapons. The scope of violence extended beyond confrontations with law-enforcement forces to include ordinary citizens, emergency services, public infrastructure, economic facilities, and religious sites.
What unfolded during 8-10 January was therefore not merely an intensification of unrest or scattered rioting, but the emergence of an identifiable pattern of organized violence with terrorist characteristics. The selection of targets, operational methods, and resulting harm aligned with known patterns associated with violent non-state actors, including ISIS. The apparent objective was to instill fear, disrupt everyday life, and maximize casualties-rather than to advance legitimate economic or social demands.
A clear analytical distinction between peaceful protest, limited disorder, and organized terrorist violence is essential for an accurate understanding of the January 2026 developments. Such a distinction provides a realistic basis for legal, human-rights, and security assessments and helps prevent simplistic narratives that overlook the documented complexity of events on the ground.
Accordingly, this report offers an evidence-based, field-informed account of the January 2026 unrest in Iran and underscores the necessity of distinguishing between peaceful assembly and organized violence in any fair and responsible evaluation.
MORE DETAIL AT:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yEDisk6DYpTa63OlUAK9rvRbpEiDOG57/edit